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Early Freeze for Oklahoma?
October 10, 2006

Early Freeze.doc
Early Freeze.pdf

Early Freeze for OKlahoma?
By Mark Shafer
Director of Climate Information
The Oklahoma Climatological Survey
10/10/2006

NORMAN - It's hard to believe that just a few days ago we were withering in 90-degree heat and now we're talking about a freeze. But, this is October in Oklahoma. While freezes in early October are unusual, they are by no means unheard of. In fact, looking at 88 long-term stations spanning the state, every single one of them has recorded a freeze on or before October 11. The earliest freezes have occurred in northwestern Oklahoma, while southern and eastern Oklahoma have held out longer.

For most of the state, if temperatures dip below freezing later this week, the first freeze would be roughly a one-in-ten chance. This means that taking the first freeze date for all years on record and ranking them, 90 percent of those years did not record a freeze until after mid-October. The normal, or 5-in-10 chance of freezing, occurs in about the 3rd week of October in northern Oklahoma to the first week of November in southern parts of the state.

Even if temperatures do not dip to 32 degrees, it may still be cold enough in some places for frost to form. Official temperature records are recorded at a height of about 5 feet. On a clear night with light winds temperatures at the ground can be as much as 4 degrees colder than at the recorded measuring height. So even if forecast temperatures are for the mid-30s, it might be wise to cover up flowers and other sensitive plants.

To find out how unusual early freezes are, visit the Oklahoma Climatological Survey at http://climate.mesonet.org/ and look for County Climate Summaries. Each county page lists stations that have long-term temperature records that will give you a range of freeze dates, plus a whole lot of other valuable climate information!

Attachments:
Map - Date of Earliest Freeze
Map - Average Date of First Freeze
Table - Freeze Dates for Selected Towns in Oklahoma

CityEarliest1 in 10
Chance
2 in 10
Chance
Median8 in 10
Chance
9 in 10
Chance
Latest

Ada

Oct 7

Oct 20

Oct 27

Nov 6

Nov 18

Nov 22

Dec 8

Altus

Sep 30

Oct 20

Oct 24

Nov 4

Nov 13

Nov 20

Dec 8

Altus Dam

Sep 30

Oct 18

Oct 26

Nov 6

Nov 17

Nov 21

Dec 6

Alva

Sep 21

Oct 10

Oct 19

Oct 27

Nov 6

Nov 12

Nov 30

Antlers

Oct 8

Oct 20

Oct 24

Nov 3

Nov 11

Nov 21

Dec 4

Ardmore

Oct 18

Oct 27

Nov 2

Nov 10

Nov 23

Nov 30

Dec 21

Arnett

Sep 30

Oct 12

Oct 17

Oct 26

Nov 5

Nov 11

Nov 29

Barnsdall

Sep 23

Oct 9

Oct 14

Oct 20

Nov 6

Nov 10

Nov 12

Bartlesville

Sep 22

Oct 7

Oct 12

Oct 25

Nov 5

Nov 9

Nov 11

Billings

Sep 26

Oct 12

Oct 17

Oct 27

Nov 10

Nov 16

Dec 2

Bixby

Sep 30

Oct 12

Oct 19

Nov 1

Nov 9

Nov 11

Dec 1

Blackwell

Sep 30

Oct 14

Oct 19

Oct 28

Nov 8

Nov 11

Nov 25

Blanchard

Oct 7

Oct 20

Oct 27

Nov 5

Nov 17

Nov 23

Dec 8

Boise City

Sep 18

Sep 28

Oct 7

Oct 16

Oct 25

Oct 26

Dec 1

Bristow

Sep 30

Oct 14

Oct 19

Oct 31

Nov 8

Nov 15

Dec 28

Buffalo

Sep 24

Oct 8

Oct 10

Oct 22

Oct 29

Nov 4

Nov 16

Canton Dam

Sep 24

Oct 12

Oct 17

Oct 26

Nov 8

Nov 11

Nov 19

Carnegie

Sep 24

Oct 9

Oct 16

Oct 26

Nov 7

Nov 16

Nov 27

Chandler

Sep 27

Oct 12

Oct 20

Oct 31

Nov 11

Nov 20

Nov 30

Chattanooga

Oct 7

Oct 19

Oct 24

Nov 4

Nov 16

Nov 20

Dec 8

Chickasha

Oct 9

Oct 17

Oct 20

Oct 29

Nov 10

Nov 16

Nov 23

Claremore

Sep 29

Oct 10

Oct 18

Oct 27

Nov 7

Nov 11

Nov 25

Clinton

Oct 7

Oct 16

Oct 19

Oct 30

Nov 10

Nov 16

Dec 4

Cushing

Oct 7

Oct 25

Oct 29

Nov 6

Nov 16

Nov 20

Dec 8

Duncan

Oct 7

Oct 26

Oct 31

Nov 8

Nov 18

Nov 22

Dec 8

Durant

Oct 9

Oct 22

Oct 25

Nov 5

Nov 17

Nov 24

Dec 8

Enid

Oct 8

Oct 20

Oct 25

Nov 3

Nov 13

Nov 18

Dec 1

Erick

Sep 21

Oct 12

Oct 18

Oct 26

Nov 5

Nov 12

Dec 4

Eufaula

Sep 29

Oct 20

Oct 25

Nov 4

Nov 16

Nov 22

Dec 9

Fort Supply Dam

Sep 19

Oct 3

Oct 8

Oct 22

Nov 3

Nov 8

Nov 15

Frederick

Oct 9

Oct 26

Oct 30

Nov 9

Nov 22

Nov 25

Dec 9

Freedom

Sep 15

Oct 1

Oct 7

Oct 16

Oct 26

Oct 29

Nov 9

Gate

Sep 28

Oct 10

Oct 16

Oct 24

Nov 4

Nov 10

Nov 14

Geary

Sep 22

Oct 19

Oct 23

Nov 3

Nov 13

Nov 21

Dec 21

Goodwell

Sep 21

Oct 4

Oct 10

Oct 20

Oct 29

Nov 2

Nov 12

Great Salt Plains Dam

Oct 7

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 3

Nov 10

Nov 17

Dec 1

Guthrie

Sep 21

Oct 12

Oct 19

Oct 28

Nov 10

Nov 14

Nov 29

Hammon

Sep 15

Oct 8

Oct 12

Oct 24

Oct 31

Nov 3

Dec 3

Hanna

Oct 9

Oct 16

Oct 20

Nov 1

Nov 10

Nov 11

Nov 20

Hennessey

Sep 30

Oct 18

Oct 22

Oct 31

Nov 10

Nov 16

Dec 1

Hobart

Sep 30

Oct 16

Oct 20

Nov 2

Nov 12

Nov 17

Nov 27

Holdenville

Oct 8

Oct 18

Oct 23

Nov 3

Nov 13

Nov 19

Dec 5

Hollis

Sep 21

Oct 17

Oct 22

Nov 1

Nov 10

Nov 16

Dec 8

Hooker

Sep 20

Oct 5

Oct 8

Oct 19

Oct 27

Oct 31

Nov 14


CityEarliest1 in 10
Chance
2 in 10
Chance
Median8 in 10
Chance
9 in 10
Chance
Latest

Hugo

Oct 6

Oct 23

Oct 31

Nov 9

Nov 20

Nov 24

Dec 10

Idabel

Oct 6

Oct 23

Oct 28

Nov 6

Nov 17

Nov 28

Dec 8

Jefferson

Sep 17

Oct 7

Oct 11

Oct 23

Oct 31

Nov 8

Nov 19

Kansas

Oct 8

Oct 16

Oct 20

Nov 1

Nov 7

Nov 13

Nov 24

Kenton

Sep 15

Sep 27

Oct 5

Oct 13

Oct 22

Oct 26

Nov 3

Kingfisher

Sep 26

Oct 16

Oct 20

Oct 29

Nov 7

Nov 14

Nov 24

Lake Eufaula

Oct 6

Oct 30

Nov 4

Nov 15

Nov 24

Dec 5

Dec 21

Lawton

Oct 8

Oct 20

Oct 26

Nov 4

Nov 17

Nov 25

Dec 8

Lindsay

Oct 9

Oct 17

Oct 20

Nov 2

Nov 11

Nov 16

Nov 27

Madill

Oct 11

Oct 24

Nov 2

Nov 10

Nov 22

Nov 28

Dec 14

Mangum

Sep 30

Oct 19

Oct 24

Nov 5

Nov 16

Nov 22

Dec 8

Mannford

Sep 25

Oct 7

Oct 12

Oct 24

Nov 6

Nov 11

Dec 9

Marietta

Oct 8

Oct 26

Nov 1

Nov 7

Nov 18

Nov 22

Nov 28

Mcalester

Oct 9

Oct 20

Oct 24

Nov 2

Nov 11

Nov 20

Nov 27

Mccurtain

Oct 1

Oct 16

Oct 20

Nov 1

Nov 11

Nov 20

Dec 5

Meeker

Sep 21

Oct 10

Oct 17

Oct 27

Nov 7

Nov 11

Nov 25

Miami

Sep 30

Oct 10

Oct 18

Oct 28

Nov 6

Nov 11

Dec 5

Muskogee

Oct 7

Oct 18

Oct 22

Nov 2

Nov 11

Nov 18

Dec 3

Mutual

Sep 24

Oct 10

Oct 17

Oct 26

Nov 5

Nov 10

Dec 9

Newkirk

Sep 27

Oct 13

Oct 20

Oct 29

Nov 8

Nov 14

Nov 25

Nowata

Sep 27

Oct 12

Oct 19

Oct 30

Nov 9

Nov 13

Nov 20

Okeene

Oct 1

Oct 17

Oct 20

Oct 31

Nov 10

Nov 16

Dec 21

Okemah

Oct 11

Oct 23

Oct 29

Nov 7

Nov 19

Nov 24

Dec 21

Oklahoma City

Oct 7

Oct 20

Oct 27

Nov 5

Nov 14

Nov 20

Dec 8

Okmulgee

Sep 29

Oct 12

Oct 18

Oct 30

Nov 9

Nov 15

Nov 23

Pauls Valley

Oct 7

Oct 16

Oct 20

Oct 31

Nov 10

Nov 16

Dec 8

Pawhuska

Sep 29

Oct 9

Oct 14

Oct 24

Nov 4

Nov 8

Nov 26

Ponca City

Sep 30

Oct 14

Oct 19

Oct 29

Nov 8

Nov 16

Nov 24

Pryor

Sep 30

Oct 12

Oct 19

Oct 28

Nov 6

Nov 8

Nov 21

Ralston

Sep 26

Oct 8

Oct 12

Oct 22

Nov 4

Nov 8

Nov 11

Reydon

Sep 21

Oct 8

Oct 11

Oct 25

Nov 5

Nov 11

Nov 28

Seminole

Oct 7

Oct 24

Oct 29

Nov 6

Nov 17

Nov 23

Dec 5

Spavinaw

Oct 7

Oct 19

Oct 24

Nov 3

Nov 17

Nov 23

Dec 1

Stillwater

Sep 27

Oct 12

Oct 18

Oct 27

Nov 6

Nov 11

Nov 26

Stilwell

Sep 23

Oct 10

Oct 12

Oct 22

Nov 4

Nov 9

Nov 17

Tahlequah

Sep 27

Oct 8

Oct 16

Oct 26

Nov 7

Nov 17

Dec 2

Tulsa

Oct 8

Oct 25

Oct 29

Nov 5

Nov 14

Nov 20

Dec 9

Vinita

Sep 20

Oct 7

Oct 12

Oct 23

Nov 5

Nov 8

Dec 1

Walters

Oct 7

Oct 22

Oct 27

Nov 5

Nov 16

Nov 22

Dec 8

Waurika

Oct 8

Oct 22

Oct 27

Nov 4

Nov 15

Nov 21

Nov 28

Waynoka

Sep 21

Oct 9

Oct 13

Oct 25

Nov 3

Nov 7

Nov 17

Weatherford

Sep 26

Oct 19

Oct 22

Nov 1

Nov 10

Nov 16

Dec 7

Webbers Falls

Oct 1

Oct 15

Oct 20

Oct 29

Nov 11

Nov 16

Dec 5

Wichita Mtn Wildlife Refuge

Sep 26

Oct 13

Oct 18

Oct 26

Nov 4

Nov 11

Dec 1





Media Contact:

Cerry Leffler
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2900
Norman, OK 73072-7305
405-325-2541
405-325-2550 (fax)
cerry@ou.edu

For Additional Information:

Mark Shafer
Director of Climate Information
120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2900
Norman, OK 73072-7305
405-325-2541
405-325-2550 (fax)
mshafer@ou.edu